Since I was busy finishing my TEFL course the week before last, I did not manage to publish a take on the week, nor did I publish one last week. I have decided to publish first my take on the week ending January 21st, which focuses on Taiwan’s recent election On Friday I will return to my usual schedule and publish my take on the week ending January 28th.
Election Interference?
On January 14th, Taiwan held a presidential election and though the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won again, now led by Lai Ching-te since Tsai Ing-Wen has served two terms, they have a slimmer majority in the Parliament than before, as they only won 40% of the vote, while Tsai Ing-Wen won over 50% of the vote when she was elected in 2016.[i]
This election is being hailed in the corporate media and think tanks as a “rebuff of China” and proof of Taiwan’s “de facto independence”, however, the outcome of this election does not change the fact that Taiwan is still part of China.[ii] Joe Biden reiterated the longstanding US position on Taiwanese independence when he said following the election results that “We do not support independence”, yet many in the illiberal liberal class deem the results of Taiwan’s election as evidence of its autonomy from China.[iii] Michael Beckley writes in an essay for The New York Times that “Taiwan provokes China simply by being what it is: a prosperous and free society.”[iv] This argument is like those who remark that the proximity of democracies, like Ukraine, are a threat to Russia and its political system. What provokes China is the insistence of Western countries that Taiwan is independent, despite their public position that it is not, and their mass delivery of arms to them. The delusion of many foreign policy analysts, that the mere presence of Taiwan’s democracy is a threat to China and their claim to Taiwan, is a complete contradiction of the West’s official adherence to One Chian Policy, as if there is one China, how can Taiwan be autonomous? Beckley affirms this delusion when he goes to write that “Taiwan’s blooming national identity threatens China with the prospect of permanent territorial dismemberment, and Taiwan’s elections, rule of law and free press make a mockery of Beijing’s claim that Chinese culture is incompatible with democracy. America’s words can’t change any of that.”[v] Taiwan cannot have a blooming national identity, as that requires being a nation, and Taiwan isn’t. Beckley’s main argument in his essay is that now China’s only option to enact reunification with Taiwan is military force. However, what is missing from his and the analysis of others is the reality that presently, Taiwan is part of China. It is because of our refusal to match China’s clear position on Taiwan with a clear position of our own that the CCP may see military force as its only option to complete reunification. If the US government does not see Taiwan as independent, then why do they lavishly fund and arm them to the teeth in case of a Chinese invasion? How can we say that China would be invading Taiwan if it is part of China? By our own logic, China would be invading themselves.
As I have noted in previous posts on Taiwan, the permanent regime in the US does not care about Taiwanese democracy or civil liberties, they care about semiconductors and China getting control over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. For the US, Taiwan is a pawn in the new cold war with China. Hong Kong is as well.
Though some emphasize the importance of Taiwan’s election and its supposed rebuff of China, there are some who see it as inconsequential for Cross-Strait relations. David Sacks makes this case, and he notes in an article written just before Taiwan’s election that “This election cannot change the basic fact that, if unification were a company, it would have lost its market and would be on the brink of insolvency. Taiwan is dedicated to continuing to embed itself in the West, a process that is inimical to China’s interests.”[vi] Though Sacks argues that the election does not change the status quo in Cross-Strait relations, he is still deluded in thinking that Taiwan is its own entity, that it has de facto independence, and that its existence as a democracy is a threat to China’s narrative regarding Taiwan. Sacks also notes that all three candidates in Taiwan’s election mainly differ on how to approach China, not on Taiwan’s independence.[vii] The Western delusion, that Taiwan is on its side and is a total rebuff of China’s authoritarianism, is shared by Taiwanese political elites and instead of providing clarity on the issue, we indulge Taiwan’s delusions and revel in them together. We then wonder why China is outraged by this and our doublespeak on the matter. We claim to abide by One China policy and in the same breath we promise Taiwan assistance in deterring China from invading, implying that we in fact do not abide by One China policy. Taiwan’s elites do the same. The Kuomintang party’s presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih captures this when he writes in an article for Foreign Affairs making his case for the Taiwanese presidency that “Our country is grateful to Washington for its arms sales and various Taiwan-friendly acts passed by Congress and signed by the White House over the years.”[viii] He says, “our country” and then later in his article he writes that “I uphold Taiwan’s democratic and free political system while opposing both demands for Taiwan’s independence and any attempt to absorb the island into unification with mainland China under the guise of “one country, two systems.”[ix] How can he reject a declaration of independence and refer to Taiwan as “our country”? Surely, if it’s a country, then it is independent? He affirms this again when he notes that “I advocate for both sides to carry out official interactions based on a model of mutual nonrecognition of sovereignty and mutual nondenial of jurisdiction. Taiwan’s future will be determined only by its own people.” So, he would not advocate for a declaration of sovereignty, but he still refers to Taiwan as a country and he argues that it should have a place in the World Health Organization and other international institutions.[x]
Taiwan’s future may be up to its people, but its present situation remains, it is part of China. Though Taiwan was never handed over to the Mainland after Japan surrendered in the Second World War, as Hong Kong was in 1997 from Great Britain, Taiwan was never declared an independent state. When the Nationalists fled to Taiwan after their loss in the Chinese Civil War it was not established as such. For many years the goal of Taiwan and its dictatorial Kuomintang regime under Chiang Kai-shek was reunification with Mainland China through ‘Project National Glory’.[xi] During violent turmoil in the PRC, like the Great Leap Forward, conditions for Kai-shek’s operation seemed favorable, so much so that he sought assistance from the US in an invasion of the PRC, but eventually this plan was abandoned in 1972 since the ROC simply did not have the capacity needed to carry it out.[xii] However, the ROC (Taiwan) maintained a policy of eventual reunification with the PRC until 1990, when the then acting president of Taiwan, Lee Teng-hui, immediately abandoned reunification and started to pursue a strategy of self-defense.
Japan’s claim to Taiwan and nearby islands was renounced following the San Franciso Treaty, signed in 1951 and enacted in 1952, however, China did not attend since who ruled China, the ROC or the PRC, was not agreed upon by the signatories.[xiii] Great Britain recognized the PRC, while the US recognized the ROC. Though Taiwan was renounced from Japan, it was not officially handed over to China, and at the time, as noted, Kai-shek desired to invade the PRC and to make his regime the sole government of all of China. Taiwan’s political status was then undetermined, to be decided later, and it is still undecided.
The claim now, reiterated recently by Taiwan’s new president Ching-te, is that Taiwan has de facto or de jure independence. Ching-te said before the election that he does not plan to declare independence, “because Taiwan is already a sovereign and independent country, and there is no need to declare independence,”[xiv] This echoes similar remarks by Ing-wen, who felt that Taiwan is independent whether an official declaration is made or not, but Taiwan has never been a country.
It is also important to note that early into his party’s establishment, Mao Zedong saw Taiwan as an independent nation, and that this only changed following the infamous Cairo Declaration in which Winston Churchill, Franklin Roosevelt and Kai-shek called for territories annexed by Japan to be “restored to the Republic of China”, which meant Taiwan.[xv] In response, the CCP, who would in 1949 establish the PRC, started to claim that the Republic of China should become part of ‘their China’.[xvi] Thus, the Chinese position is not totally consistent either. Despite this, they are presently staking their claim to Taiwan, and Taiwan and its Western allies are not doing so. They are instead blathering and claiming to both recognize, or as the US government argues, acknowledge, that there is One China while also seeing Taiwan as independent and claiming its relations with them are unofficial.[xvii]
Until the Taiwanese people vote on their independence, they are part of China, however, in holding such a vote, they would be admitting that they are part of China, hence why they would need to hold a referendum to become officially independent. They cannot do this, as it would be seen as a move that ‘emboldens China’. What Taiwan should first do is admit that they are part of China. From here they could call for a referendum to decide their independence, and if the independence side wins, then they can become officially independent. Only then can China’s actions towards Taiwan be deemed truly provocative, as presently Taiwan is part of their country. Sadly, this will not occur, though it is the only logical solution. With no interest in reason or peace, the West is seemingly hell bent on waging a likely catastrophic war over Taiwan.
[i] Hart, Brian, Scott Kennedy, Jude Blanchette, and Bonny Lin. “Taiwan’s 2024 Elections: Results and Implications.” Www.csis.org, January 19, 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/taiwans-2024-elections-results-and-implications.
[ii] Lee, Yimou, and Sarah Woo. “Taiwan Voters Rebuff China, Ruling Party Gets Third Presidential Term.” Reuters, January 13, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/polls-open-taiwans-critical-elections-watched-closely-by-china-2024-01-13/., and Taylor, Jerome, Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, and Nectar Gan. “Taiwan Voters Dismiss China Warnings and Hand Ruling Party a Historic Third Consecutive Presidential Win.” CNN, January 13, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html.
[iii] Alafriz, Olivia. “Biden: ‘We Do Not Support Independence’ for Taiwan.” POLITICO, January 13, 2024. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/13/biden-taiwan-independence-lai-00135445.
[iv] Beckley, Michael. “Opinion | a Peaceful Solution on Taiwan Is Slipping Away.” The New York Times, January 17, 2024, sec. Opinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/opinion/taiwan-china-election-war.html.
[v] Beckley. “Opinion | a Peaceful Solution on Taiwan Is Slipping Away.”
[vi] Sacks, David. “Taiwan’s Status Quo Election.” Foreign Affairs, January 10, 2024. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/elections-cross-strait-united-states-china-relations.
[vii] Sacks. “Taiwan’s Status Quo Election.”
[viii] Yu-ih, Hou. “Taiwan’s Path between Extremes.” Foreign Affairs, September 18, 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwans-path-between-extremes.
[ix] Yu-ih. “Taiwan’s Path between Extremes.”
[x] Yu-ih. “Taiwan’s Path between Extremes.”
[xi] Hsu, Stacey. “All 228 Incident Documents Declassified – Taipei Times.” http://www.taipeitimes.com, February 27, 2017. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/02/27/2003665775?fb_comment_id=1254610747908499_1255220944514146. These documents were declassified by Tsai Ing-wen detailing Chiang Kai-shek’s plan to invade Mainland China. There were also declassified documents detailing plans by the US government to bomb Mainland China, though they ultimately declined to officially intervene on behalf of Kai-shek. See: CBS News. “U.S. Considered Nuclear Strike on China in 1958 over Taiwan Crisis, Classified Documents Show – CBS News.” http://www.cbsnews.com, May 24, 2021. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-china-nuclear-strike-taiwan-1958-documents-daniel-ellsberg/.
[xii] Lin, Hsiao-ting. “Taiwan’s Secret Ally.” Hoover Institution, April 6, 2012. https://www.hoover.org/research/taiwans-secret-ally.
[xiii] United States of America. “Treaty of Peace with Japan.” Edited by United Nations. United Nations, September 8, 1951.
[xiv] Hsaio-hwa, Hsai, and Huang Chun-mei. “‘No Need’ to Declare Independence, Taiwan Presidential Hopeful Says.” Radio Free Asia, January 9, 2024. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/presidential-hopeful-01092024121734.html.
[xv] Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, Winston Churchill, and Chiang Kai-shek. “The Cairo Declaration | Wilson Center Digital Archive.” digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org, November 26, 1943. https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/cairo-declaration.
[xvi] Wees, Gerrit van der. “When the CCP Thought Taiwan Should Be Independent.” thediplomat.com, May 3, 2022. https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/when-the-ccp-thought-taiwan-should-be-independent/.
[xvii] Goldstein, Steven M. “Understanding the One China Policy.” Brookings, August 31, 2023. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/understanding-the-one-china-policy/.
References
Alafriz, Olivia. “Biden: ‘We Do Not Support Independence’ for Taiwan.” POLITICO, January 13, 2024. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/01/13/biden-taiwan-independence-lai-00135445.
Beckley, Michael. “Opinion | a Peaceful Solution on Taiwan Is Slipping Away.” The New York Times, January 17, 2024, sec. Opinion. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/17/opinion/taiwan-china-election-war.html.
CBS News. “U.S. Considered Nuclear Strike on China in 1958 over Taiwan Crisis, Classified Documents Show – CBS News.” http://www.cbsnews.com, May 24, 2021. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-china-nuclear-strike-taiwan-1958-documents-daniel-ellsberg/.
Goldstein, Steven M. “Understanding the One China Policy.” Brookings, August 31, 2023. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/understanding-the-one-china-policy/.
Hart, Brian, Scott Kennedy, Jude Blanchette, and Bonny Lin. “Taiwan’s 2024 Elections: Results and Implications.” Www.csis.org, January 19, 2024. https://www.csis.org/analysis/taiwans-2024-elections-results-and-implications.
Hsaio-hwa, Hsai, and Huang Chun-mei. “‘No Need’ to Declare Independence, Taiwan Presidential Hopeful Says.” Radio Free Asia, January 9, 2024. https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/presidential-hopeful-01092024121734.html.
Hsu, Stacey. “All 228 Incident Documents Declassified – Taipei Times.” http://www.taipeitimes.com, February 27, 2017. https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2017/02/27/2003665775?fb_comment_id=1254610747908499_1255220944514146.
Lee, Yimou, and Sarah Woo. “Taiwan Voters Rebuff China, Ruling Party Gets Third Presidential Term.” Reuters, January 13, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/polls-open-taiwans-critical-elections-watched-closely-by-china-2024-01-13/.
Lin, Hsiao-ting. “Taiwan’s Secret Ally.” Hoover Institution, April 6, 2012. https://www.hoover.org/research/taiwans-secret-ally.
Roosevelt, Franklin Delano, Winston Churchill, and Chiang Kai-shek. “The Cairo Declaration | Wilson Center Digital Archive.” digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org, November 26, 1943. https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/cairo-declaration.
Sacks, David. “Taiwan’s Status Quo Election.” Foreign Affairs, January 10, 2024. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/elections-cross-strait-united-states-china-relations.
Taylor, Jerome, Eric Cheung, Wayne Chang, and Nectar Gan. “Taiwan Voters Dismiss China Warnings and Hand Ruling Party a Historic Third Consecutive Presidential Win.” CNN, January 13, 2024. https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/13/asia/taiwan-presidential-election-results-intl-hnk/index.html.
United States of America. “Treaty of Peace with Japan.” Edited by United Nations. United Nations, September 8, 1951.
Wees, Gerrit van der. “When the CCP Thought Taiwan Should Be Independent.” thediplomat.com, May 3, 2022. https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/when-the-ccp-thought-taiwan-should-be-independent/.
Yu-ih, Hou. “Taiwan’s Path between Extremes.” Foreign Affairs, September 18, 2023. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/taiwan/taiwans-path-between-extremes.
Not Without Incident: Questioning Big Brother's Platitudes 
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