The Magical Thinking of the Conservative Elite
Many in the conservative elite are lamenting the downfall of the DeSantis campaign and are pointing out his failures, and they are also blaming Republican voters for refusing to ‘see sense’ and to opt for a candidate other than Trump.[i] They were also desperate to see Nikki Haley beat Trump in the New Hampshire primary.[ii] Haley herself is delusional in thinking that she has a chance against Trump and importantly, that the political class despises and doubts her, and she seems to believe that she is a threat to the Washington establishment.[iii]
If Haley and Trump were to debate, they would agree on most key issues, especially China, Israel, and Russia, as his record is that of a hawk, not a dove or an isolationist. Seeing Trump as such a detraction from traditional Republicans is magical thinking. Even if he is not held back by social conservatives and internationalists, it is unlikely that he would ever enact a truly America First foreign policy doctrine.
In terms of policy, Trump is not atypical relative to past presidents, especially Republican presidents.[iv] On deregulation, tax cuts, judicial appointments, and border policy he was cookie cutter Republican. As noted in the book The Ordinary Presidency of Donald J. Trump by Jon Herbert, Trevor McCrisken and Andrew Wroe, Trump may have been extraordinary in his style and mannerisms, as well as his claim that he was leading a revolution on behalf of the ‘forgotten man’, but that in reality:
“He was not constructing a long-term policy legacy. The existing order had not been overthrown, as Republicans did not accept the new Trump agenda and most of what he offered was either tempered by Congress or the courts, or he and his advisers adjusted to ft with established Republican positions. Instead, Trump looks like a rather ordinary Republican, both in terms of his agenda choices and his legislative achievements.”[v]
In researching my thesis, I discovered this and many other arguments contending that Trump governed like any other Republican, domestically and internationally. Aside from his trade policy, he was not a radical departure from Bush and his acolytes, and yet, thinkers like Bill Kristol and Max Boot fled from the Republican party over the nomination of Trump, citing his alleged isolationism and threats to the US led world order as dire and dangerous.
I wrote an essay recently making the case for Trump’s re-election based on the threat he poses to the established US/Western order. To elaborate, this threat is more rhetorical than practical, as during his presidency, Trump hired people who are anathema to his America First agenda, like Fiona Hill and John Bolton, and as a result his foreign policy was more in line with his predecessors, advocating for a policy of peace through strength. Though it may have been underpinned by nationalism and certain isolationist tendencies, overall Trump was as militaristic as Bush and Obama, and in some ways even more so, as he increased drone strikes by 300% and sought to intervene in Venezuela, Bolivia and at one point he was considering, with the encouragement of Bolton and others in his cabinet, bombing Iran.[vi]
I see Trump as a Molotov cocktail, not a sophisticated deconstructionist. This is the logic of my argument that Trump, America’s arsonist, must win in this year’s election. I understand on many policy issues, Trump is an unwitting puppet of the permanent regime. The motivation to extinguish his movement is to get rid of an embarrassment, not necessarily to get rid of an actual dissenter.
Contrary to what the conservative elite thinks, they do not differ from their opposition on foreign policy as much as they like to think they do. Joe Biden may be seen as ‘weak’ and ‘appeasing’, but as I’ve noted many times before, Biden has largely continued Trump’s foreign policy, despite claims that it is more ‘ally friendly’. If Trump and Biden debate, which they probably won’t have to, what would they disagree about on foreign policy? They would disagree on climate change, North Korea, and the UN. However, on other matters, like trade, China, and Iran, they do not disagree. They are both servile to Israel, are both intent on containing China, as are those in the America First camp. Biden would inevitably say that Trump is beholden to Vladimir Putin, but Trump’s record on Russia is far more hawkish than Obama, and at least equals Biden’s, so the conservative elite may rant and rave about Biden’s weakness on the world stage, but his policy actions say otherwise. Biden has been bombing Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and he is still sending money and arms to Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.
To appear different, Trump must depict himself as even more hawkish, a complete betrayal of America First. The conservative elite is deluded in thinking that Biden, a rampant militarist, is cowardly, as a real president bombs until they run out of bombs, like Obama did in Syria. However, Obama was also considered a weak president by the conservative elites, and he was much more militaristic than Bush.[vii] Biden’s withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, a completion of Trump’s plan, is touted as the first in a long line of moves that showed weakness, causing America’s adversaries to lick their lips in anticipation of a world bereft of the US. Biden’s Afghanistan withdrawal was compared to Saigon and Richard Nixon’s withdrawal from Vietnam in 1975.[viii] According to many, not just in the conservative elite but across the illiberal liberal class, this withdrawal led to Pol Pot’s genocide in Cambodia and the reign of the Khmer Rouge, however, it was the incessant bombing and the use of napalm and cluster munitions in Northern Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia that created fertile ground for the Khmer Rouge to seize power and to commit horrifying atrocities.
It is not Biden’s withdrawal from Afghanistan that led to the retaking of Kabul by the Taliban, though it did leave them a massive, advanced arsenal. What allowed the Taliban to take over within days was the corrupt, ill prepared and poorly trained Afghan forces, the cowardly puppet government installed by the US, and the wasteful 20-year occupation of the country that created more resistance to its occupiers, not a flourishing democracy. Biden may have left Afghanistan, but the US still has thousands of troops in the Middle East.
The idea that Biden is limp in his foreign policy, that it is appeasement, is a claim that shows the magical thinking of the conservative elite. How many bombs does Biden need to drop to be considered a strong leader? Obama dropped approximately 26, 171 bombs in 2016 alone, and he was seen as weak.[ix] Articles looking back on his presidency lamented his apparent inaction in Syria, Iraq, and against China and Russia. Biden could probably nuke Iran and the response from the conservative elite would be, “What took you so long?”
The New McCarthyism
On January 31st, Senator Tom Cotton grilled Tik Tok CEO Shou Zi Chew about his nationality and his loyalties. Cotton asked him “Have you ever been a member of the Chinese Communist Party?” and after Chew replied that he was Singaporean, Cotton then asked him “Have you ever been associated or affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party?”, to which Chew replied again that he is Singaporean, and he also noted that he served in the Singaporean military.[x] Cotton’s relentless questioning and attempts to link Chew to the CCP reveal the new McCarthyism embroiling the US and Western political class. Although Republicans should be most disgusted by such tactics, considering accusations of the GOP being taken over by Putin since Trump’s election in 2016, they are happy to exploit disdain for China to justify immense defense spending and renewed surveillance and censorship powers for the federal government.
There is opposing China, a perfectly reasonable position that is protected speech, as is dissenting from such a view and defending China, and then there is seeing CCP operatives everywhere, at Tik Tok, in colleges, in governments, and under the bed. In this distorted, frenzied perception, seeking to identify and erase all who do not toe the party line on China and the CCP.
Cotton also asked Chew about the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989 and his opinion about them, beckoning him to be harsher in his remarks.[xi] This line of questioning, in a hearing on online child safety, only serves one purpose, ensuring that Chew does not dissent from Washington’s official narrative on the CCP. It may be true that the CCP committed acts of atrocity at Tiananmen Square in response to protests in 1989, but what does that have to do with the hearing, and why does it matter what the CEO of Tik Tok thinks about it? It was a test of his loyalty. The default assumption is that anyone associated with Tik Tok is somehow linked to the CCP, and that it is up to them to prove their loyalty to the US and the West, and their opposition to China. However, many Tik Tok executives are American, and according to investigative reporting by MintPress News, Tik Tok has been hiring former US State Department officials, and in 2023, Tik Tok, at the behest of the US security state, banned its users from discussing Osama bin Laden’s ‘Letter to America’.[xii] If Tik Tok is a front for the CCP, why are they censoring it on behalf of the US? Why do they hire goons and spooks from the US permanent regime, like other social media companies? Importantly, there is the question of why China would need to infiltrate and obtain the data of American citizens through a social media app when they can just buy the data from companies who gather it and sell it, like Google. If China has the funds to buy up land and influence, why would they not have the money to purchase data from Google, who will not hesitate to sell it to the CCP, as they are purely profit driven? Surely it would be much easier to simply buy the data from Google, than to set up an elaborate plot using a social media app.
It does not bother people like Cotton that his own government spies on and collects data from American citizens, it bothers him that the CCP does the same in China and that they may be trying to export their security state into the US and the West. The CCP does not need to export its surveillance state, as the US made itself a surveillance state through the Patriot Act and the years long war on terror. The US is becoming what it claims to hate in its fight against China. Politicians like Cotton are ravenous in their drive to erase anything that seems like it might be linked to the CCP. This is the new McCarthyism.
You may hate the CCP, and that is perfectly justified, however, you should understand that, as proven in the illiberal measures taken to root out alleged communism within the US during the first cold war, such frenzied, Manichean thinking results in less freedom for everyone, not more. It certainly does not make us a total contrast to countries like China. Instead, it makes us the embodiment of what we claim to hate and resist.
[i] The Editors. “Republican Voters Can — and Should — Rethink Nominating Trump.” National Review, January 10, 2024. https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/01/republican-voters-can-and-should-rethink-nominating-trump/.
[ii] Gambino, Lauren. “‘New Hampshire Is Do-Or-Die’: Granite State Is Nikki Haley’s Best Chance against Trump.” The Guardian, January 22, 2024, sec. US news. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/22/nikki-haley-new-hampshire-primary-independent-voters., and Strain, Michael R. “Nikki Haley Should Stay in the GOP Race | by Michael R. Strain.” Project Syndicate, February 12, 2024. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nikki-haley-should-stay-in-republican-primary-by-michael-r-strain-2024-02.
[iii] Korecki, Natasha. “Nikki Haley Refuses to Quit, Insisting She Can Still Beat Trump.” NBC News, January 24, 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/haley-refuse-drop-out-loss-new-hampshire-trump-rcna134767.
[iv] Beauchamp, Scott. “Meet the New Drone, Same as the Old Drone | Scott Beauchamp.” The Baffler, March 31, 2017. https://thebaffler.com/latest/meet-the-new-drone-beauchamp., Daojiong, Zha. “China-US Relations under Trump: More Continuity than Change.” Asian Perspective 41, no. 4 (2017): 701–15. https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2017.0030., Hunt, Edward. “The Persistence of Pax Americana.” jacobin.com, October 10, 2017. https://jacobin.com/2017/10/trump-foreign-policy-american-empire., Macdonald, Paul K. “America First? Explaining Continuity and Change in Trump’s Foreign Policy.” Political Science Quarterly 133, no. 3 (September 2018): 401–34. https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12804., Marcetic, Branko. “The George W. Bush Administration Lives on in Donald Trump.” jacobin.com, August 9, 2020. https://jacobin.com/2020/08/george-bush-administration-donald-trump-dhs-ice., and Tierney, Dominic. “Obama and Trump: Foreign Policy Opposites or Twins?” Foreign Policy Research Institute, December 13, 2019. https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/12/obama-and-trump-foreign-policy-opposites-or-twins/.
[v] Herbert, Jon, Trevor Mccrisken, and Andrew Wroe. The Ordinary Presidency of Donald J. Trump. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019.
[vi] A. Farooq, Umar. “Trump’s Air Strikes in Afghanistan Dramatically Increased Civilian Deaths: Report.” Middle East Eye, December 8, 2020. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/trump-afghanistan-middle-east-strikes-civilian-deaths#:~:text=In%202017%2C%20drone%20strikes%20in., Borger, Julian. “US Air Wars under Trump: Increasingly Indiscriminate, Increasingly Opaque.” The Guardian, January 23, 2018, sec. US news. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/23/us-air-wars-trump., Intercepted, Eva Golinger, Allan Nairn, and Roberto Lovato. “Intercepted Podcast: Donald Trump and the Yankee Plot to Overthrow the Venezuelan Government.” The Intercept, January 30, 2019. https://theintercept.com/2019/01/30/donald-trump-and-the-yankee-plot-to-overthrow-the-venezuelan-government/., and Johnson, Jake. “In Statement That ‘Reads like a Chilling Warning of More Coups to Come,’ Trump Celebrates Military Coup in Bolivia.” http://www.commondreams.org, November 12, 2019. https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/12/statement-reads-chilling-warning-more-coups-come-trump-celebrates-military-coup.
[vii] Chomsky, Noam, and Richard Hall. “‘Little Difference’ between Obama, Bush in Substance.” chomsky.info, June 24, 2009. https://chomsky.info/20090624/., and La Botz, Dan. “Obama Is No Coward.” jacobin.com, June 11, 2015. https://jacobin.com/2015/06/obama-wall-street-drones-legacy.
[viii] Packer, George. “The Betrayal.” The Atlantic, January 31, 2022. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/03/biden-afghanistan-exit-american-allies-abandoned/621307/., Sasse, Ben. “Worse than Saigon.” National Review, August 16, 2021. https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/08/worse-than-saigon/., and Toosi, Nahal, and Andrew Desiderio. “A ‘Saigon Moment’: Biden Feels Political Heat as Chaos Looms in Afghanistan.” POLITICO, June 24, 2021. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/24/biden-afghanistan-withdraw-troops-white-house-visit-496009.
[ix] F. Brinley Bruton. “U.S. Bombed Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Somalia in 2016.” NBC News. NBC News, January 9, 2017. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-bombed-iraq-syria-pakistan-afghanistan-libya-yemen-somalia-n704636.
[x] Barros Leal, Isabela Espadas. “Sen. Tom Cotton Faces Backlash for Repeatedly Asking TikTok’s CEO about His Citizenship.” NBC News, February 1, 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/tom-cotton-backlash-tiktok-ceo-shou-chew-rcna136673.
[xi] Barros Leal. “Sen. Tom Cotton Faces Backlash for Repeatedly Asking TikTok’s CEO about His Citizenship.”
[xii] Macleod, Alan. “TikTok: Chinese ‘Trojan Horse’ Is Run by State Department Officials.” MintPress News, April 13, 2023. https://www.mintpressnews.com/tiktok-chinese-trojan-horse-run-by-state-department-officials/284353/., and Tolentino, Daysia. “TikTok Removes Hashtag for Osama Bin Laden’s ‘Letter to America’ after Viral Videos Circulate.” NBC News, November 17, 2023. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/osama-bin-laden-letter-to-america-tiktok-hashtag-removed-viral-videos-rcna125534.
References
A. Farooq, Umar. “Trump’s Air Strikes in Afghanistan Dramatically Increased Civilian Deaths: Report.” Middle East Eye, December 8, 2020. https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/trump-afghanistan-middle-east-strikes-civilian-deaths#:~:text=In%202017%2C%20drone%20strikes%20in.
Barros Leal, Isabela Espadas. “Sen. Tom Cotton Faces Backlash for Repeatedly Asking TikTok’s CEO about His Citizenship.” NBC News, February 1, 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/tom-cotton-backlash-tiktok-ceo-shou-chew-rcna136673.
Beauchamp, Scott. “Meet the New Drone, Same as the Old Drone | Scott Beauchamp.” The Baffler, March 31, 2017. https://thebaffler.com/latest/meet-the-new-drone-beauchamp.
Borger, Julian. “US Air Wars under Trump: Increasingly Indiscriminate, Increasingly Opaque.” The Guardian, January 23, 2018, sec. US news. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/jan/23/us-air-wars-trump.
Chomsky, Noam, and Richard Hall. “‘Little Difference’ between Obama, Bush in Substance.” chomsky.info, June 24, 2009. https://chomsky.info/20090624/.
Daojiong, Zha. “China-US Relations under Trump: More Continuity than Change.” Asian Perspective 41, no. 4 (2017): 701–15. https://doi.org/10.1353/apr.2017.0030.
F. Brinley Bruton. “U.S. Bombed Iraq, Syria, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Somalia in 2016.” NBC News. NBC News, January 9, 2017. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u-s-bombed-iraq-syria-pakistan-afghanistan-libya-yemen-somalia-n704636.
Gambino, Lauren. “‘New Hampshire Is Do-Or-Die’: Granite State Is Nikki Haley’s Best Chance against Trump.” The Guardian, January 22, 2024, sec. US news. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/jan/22/nikki-haley-new-hampshire-primary-independent-voters.
Herbert, Jon, Trevor Mccrisken, and Andrew Wroe. The Ordinary Presidency of Donald J. Trump. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2019.
Hunt, Edward. “The Persistence of Pax Americana.” jacobin.com, October 10, 2017. https://jacobin.com/2017/10/trump-foreign-policy-american-empire.
Intercepted, Eva Golinger, Allan Nairn, and Roberto Lovato. “Intercepted Podcast: Donald Trump and the Yankee Plot to Overthrow the Venezuelan Government.” The Intercept, January 30, 2019. https://theintercept.com/2019/01/30/donald-trump-and-the-yankee-plot-to-overthrow-the-venezuelan-government/.
Johnson, Jake. “In Statement That ‘Reads like a Chilling Warning of More Coups to Come,’ Trump Celebrates Military Coup in Bolivia.” http://www.commondreams.org, November 12, 2019. https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/12/statement-reads-chilling-warning-more-coups-come-trump-celebrates-military-coup.
Korecki, Natasha. “Nikki Haley Refuses to Quit, Insisting She Can Still Beat Trump.” NBC News, January 24, 2024. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/haley-refuse-drop-out-loss-new-hampshire-trump-rcna134767.
La Botz, Dan. “Obama Is No Coward.” jacobin.com, June 11, 2015. https://jacobin.com/2015/06/obama-wall-street-drones-legacy.
Macdonald, Paul K. “America First? Explaining Continuity and Change in Trump’s Foreign Policy.” Political Science Quarterly 133, no. 3 (September 2018): 401–34. https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.12804.
Macleod, Alan. “TikTok: Chinese ‘Trojan Horse’ Is Run by State Department Officials.” MintPress News, April 13, 2023. https://www.mintpressnews.com/tiktok-chinese-trojan-horse-run-by-state-department-officials/284353/.
Marcetic, Branko. “The George W. Bush Administration Lives on in Donald Trump.” jacobin.com, August 9, 2020. https://jacobin.com/2020/08/george-bush-administration-donald-trump-dhs-ice.
Packer, George. “The Betrayal.” The Atlantic, January 31, 2022. https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/03/biden-afghanistan-exit-american-allies-abandoned/621307/.
Sasse, Ben. “Worse than Saigon.” National Review, August 16, 2021. https://www.nationalreview.com/2021/08/worse-than-saigon/.
Strain, Michael R. “Nikki Haley Should Stay in the GOP Race | by Michael R. Strain.” Project Syndicate, February 12, 2024. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nikki-haley-should-stay-in-republican-primary-by-michael-r-strain-2024-02.
The Editors. “Republican Voters Can — and Should — Rethink Nominating Trump.” National Review, January 10, 2024. https://www.nationalreview.com/2024/01/republican-voters-can-and-should-rethink-nominating-trump/.
Tierney, Dominic. “Obama and Trump: Foreign Policy Opposites or Twins?” Foreign Policy Research Institute, December 13, 2019. https://www.fpri.org/article/2019/12/obama-and-trump-foreign-policy-opposites-or-twins/.
Tolentino, Daysia. “TikTok Removes Hashtag for Osama Bin Laden’s ‘Letter to America’ after Viral Videos Circulate.” NBC News, November 17, 2023. https://www.nbcnews.com/news/osama-bin-laden-letter-to-america-tiktok-hashtag-removed-viral-videos-rcna125534.
Toosi, Nahal, and Andrew Desiderio. “A ‘Saigon Moment’: Biden Feels Political Heat as Chaos Looms in Afghanistan.” POLITICO, June 24, 2021. https://www.politico.com/news/2021/06/24/biden-afghanistan-withdraw-troops-white-house-visit-496009.
Not Without Incident: Questioning Big Brother's Platitudes 
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